- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 5?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 5?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 5?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a high of 22–23°C in London on September 5 under building high pressure, light westerly winds, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime heating. These conditions follow a cooler early-September pattern after recent Atlantic fronts, limiting further warming despite the seasonal baseline. Model consensus and observational trends support the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C (51.5%) and 22°C (29.5%), with only limited probability assigned to 24°C or higher given the modest thermal advection expected. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.