- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 3?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 3?59¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 3?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Multiple weather models and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance point to a daytime high near 28–29°C on September 3 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, driven by a stable high-pressure regime and moderate-to-strong northeasterly (poyraz) winds that moderate daytime heating. These conditions align with early-September climatology for Istanbul, where highs typically peak in the upper 20s°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Recent observations show consistent clearing after any morning haze or localized fog, with minimal cloud cover limiting further temperature suppression. Trader consensus favoring 26°C (60.5% implied probability) over the 27–28°C outcomes likely incorporates slight downward model adjustments or resolution criteria tied to a specific observing station, while the low probabilities on extremes (below 24°C or above 29°C) reflect the narrow forecast range and absence of significant synoptic shifts in the latest runs. Updated model guidance and official bulletins through the evening of September 2 remain the key near-term catalysts.