- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on September 4?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on September 4?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 4?20¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and NOAA guidance points to a humid air mass with light easterly flow and a 40-50% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms as the main influence on Houston’s September 4 maximum, supporting trader consensus around the upper 80s to low 90s. Model runs show modest spread in cloud cover and convective timing, which can suppress peak readings below 90 °F or permit brief clearing that pushes values into the low 90s. These factors explain the closely matched implied probabilities for 88–91 °F bins, while historical September averages near 91 °F provide context for the modest tail risk above 92 °F. Updated model outputs and afternoon observations will likely refine the exact high before resolution.