- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 14?87¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 14?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on October 14?<1¢
Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources indicate a high temperature in the mid-60s for Chicago on October 14, 2026, with most projections centering on 63–66°F under mostly cloudy skies, northeast winds of 10–15 mph, and limited precipitation chances. This aligns closely with the historical average high of 64.2°F for the date and reflects a cooler air mass advecting into the region after warmer conditions earlier in the month. Official hourly guidance shows temperatures peaking near 64°F midday before declining, supporting the market's strong weighting toward 66–67°F as the most probable range. The modest 14% implied probability on 68–69°F accounts for minor forecast uncertainty or localized observation differences at official stations, while lower-probability bins remain negligible given the stable synoptic pattern. No significant model divergences or last-minute shifts have emerged to alter this consensus.
Aturan
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.