- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Trader consensus has locked onto 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Chengdu on October 14, 2026, reflecting near-certain market-implied odds backed by real-time station observations. Official data show a daytime maximum of 25°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds below 5 km/h, and relative humidity near 70%, consistent with China Meteorological Administration reports and regional model consensus. This value sits modestly above the long-term October average of roughly 22°C for the Sichuan basin. Only an official record revision or measurement discrepancy at primary urban stations could realistically shift the outcome, though such changes remain uncommon after initial verification.
Aturan
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.