- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 4?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 4?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Amsterdam's September 4 maximum temperature centers on the latest model consensus showing a likely peak of 20–21°C under persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and strong westerly winds near 20 m/s. These conditions limit daytime heating compared to clearer scenarios, aligning with the near-even split between 21°C (49%) and 22°C (44%) implied odds. Minor model disagreements on the timing of any brief clearing or exact wind shift explain the slim edge for 21°C, while historical early-September averages near 20°C and official guidance from sources like the Met Office reinforce expectations of mild, unsettled weather rather than warmer outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify any small upward revisions.