- Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?70¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?30¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds the edge in Florida’s 13th Congressional District race, where trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 66.5% implied probability of victory versus 31.5% for Democrat Leela Gray. Luna benefits from incumbency, superior fundraising and cash reserves, and a post-redistricting Partisan Voter Index rated R+6, consistent with “Likely Republican” assessments from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Gray secured the Democratic nomination in the August 18 primary but trails in polling averages; a late August House Majority PAC survey showed her narrowly ahead in a head-to-head matchup, though within the margin of error and with independents and some Republican crossover in play. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with the district’s swing character and national midterm dynamics providing the main variables that could narrow or widen the current gap.