- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?18¢
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?46¢
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?28¢
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?9¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent three-day windows, including August 31–September 2, have resolved in the 40-64 range, establishing a baseline pace of roughly 13–21 posts per day that aligns with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for the September 3–5 period. Traders price in continued moderate volume absent major political or product announcements, consistent with Elon Musk’s August monthly total of 880–919 posts and the absence of weekend catalysts that historically drive spikes. The 65–89 bracket at 27.5% captures the potential for modest upticks from routine engagement on X platform updates or Tesla commentary, while sub-40 and 90-plus outcomes remain discounted given the recent pattern of steady but contained activity.