- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?>99¢
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Recent euro area inflation readings above 3% in August, driven by elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, have reinforced expectations for a 25 basis point deposit facility rate hike at the September 9-10 ECB meeting. The Governing Council raised rates by the same margin in June and held steady in July while signaling readiness for further tightening if the energy shock risks broader price pressures or second-round effects. Updated staff projections and incoming data on resilient activity have aligned trader pricing with this path to 2.50%, reflecting a data-dependent stance aimed at anchoring inflation near the 2% target without pre-committing to additional steps. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or softer-than-expected price and wage figures ahead of the decision could still shift the outcome toward no change.