- Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?32¢
- Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?59¢
- Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?5¢
- Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?3¢
Persistent above-target inflation and the Bank of Russia's September pause continue to anchor expectations for its December 2026 meeting. Consumer prices rose 6.35% year-over-year in September, with underlying inflation accelerating to an annualized 5–6% amid temporary supply constraints and higher regulated tariffs. The central bank has held the key rate at 14.00% since July after a series of cuts earlier in the year, revising its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling that further easing depends on inflation dynamics and pro-inflationary risks. The newly approved three-year budget parameters align closely with the regulator’s July assumptions, potentially supporting a measured easing path, yet recent data show limited immediate disinflationary momentum. Market pricing reflects this balance: a hold at the current level remains the consensus outcome, with a smaller but material probability attached to a single 25 basis point reduction if incoming figures moderate price pressures ahead of the December decision.
Aturan
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.