- Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.1% in August?1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?7¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?30¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?45¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?20¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?3¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August?1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in August?<1¢
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rate, down from 3.5% in June, anchors trader expectations for the August print amid continued moderation in energy and shelter components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place August headline inflation near 3.36% year-over-year with a 0.35% month-over-month increase, while core trends remain stable around 2.4-2.5%. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes clustered at 3.3-3.5%, reflecting consensus forecasts that factor in easing gasoline prices and housing inflation but acknowledge potential volatility from food or services data. The September 11 release will resolve the contract, with probabilities pricing in limited near-term upside risks given the recent disinflation trajectory.