- US strike on Cuba by December 31?9¢9%
Heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration, including statements linking returning forces from the Iran conflict to potential Cuba pressure and calls by Secretary of State Marco Rubio for internal change via discreet CIA partnerships, has shaped trader assessments of near-term US military action. Ongoing sanctions programs, an energy blockade, and executive orders designating Cuban entities have intensified economic strain without triggering qualifying strikes. Cuba has responded with the Moncada 2026 military exercise and National Defense Day activities on November 5–6 to bolster readiness against perceived aggression, while maintaining limited diplomatic channels that exclude negotiations over its political system. US Southern Command has confirmed no active invasion rehearsals, and market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air operations on Cuban territory amid these dynamics.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.