- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in November?3¢3%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in November?2¢2%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in November?23¢23%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?55¢55%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in November?17¢17%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in November?5¢5%
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in November?4¢4%
- 3,4%<40.01,1 E $ forgalom
- 1,7%40.0 to 42.9887,3 $ forgalom
- 6%22,5%43.0 to 45.95,3 E $ forgalom
- 13%55%46.0 to 48.933,2 E $ forgalom
- 17,2%49.0 to 51.93,4 E $ forgalom
- 4,9%52.0 to 54.91,3 E $ forgalom
- 3,5%55.0+658,9 $ forgalom
Recent October University of Michigan consumer sentiment readings stabilized near 48.0, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.7% amid elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions and persistent affordability concerns. Higher interest rates following the Federal Reserve’s September hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range have weighed on durable goods and housing purchase conditions, while softening labor market data—including weak September payrolls and a 4.2% unemployment rate—have tempered household outlooks. These factors position the 46.0–48.9 range as the leading outcome in market-implied odds, reflecting trader focus on sticky price pressures and monetary policy transmission rather than a sharp rebound or collapse. The November 6 preliminary release, alongside fresh employment data, represents the key near-term catalyst.
Szabályok
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.