- Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?<1¢<1%
- Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?92¢92%
- Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by December 31?8¢8%
- 0,7%Increase2,8 E $ forgalom
- 1%91,5%No Change12,1 E $ forgalom
- 1%8,1%Decrease7,4 E $ forgalom
The People's Bank of China has held its key policy benchmarks steady through October and early November 2026, with the one-year loan prime rate fixed at 3.0% for a seventeenth consecutive month and the main policy rate at 3%. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no change by year-end because third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations, easing immediate pressure for broad easing, while the central bank has prioritized a structural shift to daily overnight reverse repo operations at 1.25% as the primary short-term anchor. This framework adjustment improves liquidity management without altering benchmark rates and aligns operations more closely with peer central banks. Targeted support measures, such as a reduction in the relending facility rate, have been implemented without signaling a general policy rate move. Analysts note limited scope for cuts given bank net interest margins at historic lows and the need to support the yuan, leaving any potential reserve requirement ratio adjustment as a separate tool rather than a broad rate change. Scheduled LPR fixings and the next policy meeting in late November are unlikely to alter this trajectory absent a sharp deterioration in domestic demand.
Szabályok
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.