- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?3¢3%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?8¢8%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?17¢17%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?30¢30%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?56¢56%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?74¢74%
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?95¢95%
- 3%2,6%November 616 E $ forgalom
- 7,5%November 97,5 E $ forgalom
- 7%17%November 1017,2 E $ forgalom
- 5%29,5%November 1213,6 E $ forgalom
- 5%55,5%November 1951,2 E $ forgalom
- 6%73,5%November 3017,8 E $ forgalom
- 1%94,9%December 3169,7 E $ forgalom
Anthropic’s established release cadence after Fable 5.1 in early September 2026 drives current trader sentiment. The latest Fable 5.1 update delivered measurable gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, reduced cache costs, and enterprise-friendly features like zero-data retention, positioning the next iteration (5.2+) as a logical follow-on. As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices December 31 at 94% and November 30 near 72% for public availability, with November 19 at roughly 54–56%, reflecting uncertainty around internal testing, safety reviews, and competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google models. Earlier October deadlines resolved negatively amid no official announcement or API update. Key near-term catalysts include potential developer events, earnings commentary, or API rollouts that could confirm public access, while leaks about unreleased variants like 5.5 remain speculative and do not yet shift resolution criteria.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.