- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?5¢5%
Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude export terminal handling the vast majority of its seaborne oil shipments, remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. US forces have conducted multiple strikes on military targets on and near the island since March 2026 while explicitly sparing oil infrastructure, and a naval blockade has reduced exports to near zero without any reported seizure or change in sovereignty. Public statements from US officials have floated occupation as a future option, but no ground operation has materialized, and analysts cite significant logistical and force-protection challenges to holding the site. Diplomatic channels, including recent mediation efforts, continue alongside reports of possible post-midterm military adjustments. These verified developments explain the low implied probability in related prediction markets for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 deadlines.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.