Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
PolitikaTrumpKulturaTrump-Netanyahu
Datum početka
2026-10-01
Datum završetka
2026-10-31
Promet 24 h
$518K
Ukupni promet
$845K
  • Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?>99¢>99 %
  • Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?9¢9 %

Trump’s pattern of public criticisms during October 2026 campaign rallies and press interactions shaped trader assessments for this market. In late October, the president directed pointed remarks at a Reuters journalist, questioning the reporter’s appearance and health inquiries while canceling planned events in Kansas and Iowa ahead of midterms. He also referred to Norway as a “shithouse” or “garbage country” following a Nobel Prize snub and labeled media figures, including Kaitlan Collins, as “dummies” or “stupid.” Earlier that month, Trump criticized Republican Ken Paxton and used strong language toward Democrats and outlets during events tied to the Iran conflict and election messaging. These exchanges occurred against a backdrop of midterm campaigning, where off-script comments frequently targeted journalists, allies, and adversaries, providing the primary recent catalysts for market positioning.

Pravila

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

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