Trump has already granted clemency to more than 1,700 individuals in his second term, including blanket actions for January 6 defendants and pardons for 2020 election allies such as Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell. Many grants have gone to white-collar offenders or figures with documented ties to Trump associates, donors, or super PAC contributions, often bypassing standard Justice Department review. Traders assess specific names through this pattern of rewarding political supporters and addressing perceived over-prosecution, alongside Trump’s recent statements on preemptive pardons for administration staff if Democrats gain congressional control after the 2026 midterms. The market window through December 2026 leaves room for additional actions tied to ongoing legal or political developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.