- Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?11¢11 %
- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?8¢8 %
- Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?8¢8 %
- Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?7¢7 %
- Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027?6¢6 %
- Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027?5¢5 %
- Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?4¢4 %
- 1 %10,5 %John BrennanPromet 41,7 tis. $
- 8,3 %James ComeyPromet 42,4 tis. $
- 1 %7,5 %Mahmoud KhalilPromet 5,3 tis. $
- 7 %James ClapperPromet 10,6 tis. $
- 5,5 %Susan RicePromet 2,4 tis. $
- 1 %5,4 %Candace OwensPromet 342,3 $
- 4,5 %Letitia JamesPromet 8,3 tis. $
- 4,3 %Pam BondiPromet 4,9 tis. $
- 4,1 %José Luis Rodríguez ZapateroPromet 32,3 tis. $
- 4 %Lee Jun-seokPromet 1,6 tis. $
- 3,6 %Tom HomanPromet 52,4 tis. $
- 3,5 %Brandon JohnsonPromet 4,1 tis. $
Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal investigations into former intelligence and law enforcement officials, with recent Department of Justice enforcement actions in October 2026—including charges against ex-FBI personnel for false statements—elevating focus on John Brennan and James Comey. Mahmoud Khalil draws attention from immigration-related proceedings. The resolution window closes December 31, 2026, requiring confirmed physical custody by law enforcement for any outcome to trigger yes shares. Broader patterns of probes into prior administration figures and protest cases shape positioning, though modest implied probabilities across all candidates reflect uncertainty over indictment timing and completion before year-end.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.