- Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?96¢96 %
- Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?2¢2 %
- Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?2¢2 %
- Will Greens win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
4 %96,1 %Liberal–NationalPromet 24,4 tis. $
3 %2,1 %LaborPromet 10 tis. $
1 %2 %One NationPromet 8,1 tis. $
The Liberal–National Coalition holds a commanding position in the 28 November Victorian state election, with consistent polling since July showing a 54–46 to 56–44 two-party-preferred lead over Labor and primary support around 30–33 percent. This reflects an approximately 9–10 point uniform swing from Labor’s 2022 result after 12 years in government, driven by voter shifts toward the Coalition under Jess Wilson amid Labor’s primary vote collapsing to 18–22 percent under Premier Ben Carroll. One Nation’s 21–23 percent primary support fragments the vote further but channels preferences toward the Coalition in most models. Traders price the Coalition at 96.5 percent, aligning with this sustained momentum and the short remaining campaign window. A late swing in key seats, stronger-than-expected Labor recovery among specific demographics, or unexpected preference flows could still alter the outcome before early voting begins on 18 November.
Pravila
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).