- Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 45% by December 31?14¢14 %
- Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?25¢25 %
- Vance's Republican nomination odds dip to 25% by December 31?42¢42 %
- 1 %14 %↑ 45%Promet 7 tis. $
- 2 %24,5 %↑ 40%Promet 18,1 tis. $
- 2 %42 %↓ 25%Promet 799,4 $
Vice President JD Vance remains the early frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in polls and prediction markets, though his position has faced pressure following Republican midterm losses in early November 2026. Vance has publicly linked those defeats to the ongoing Iran conflict and signaled a sharper focus on domestic priorities such as affordability and an “America First” agenda. Rivals including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have drawn increased attention as potential alternatives, with markets showing modest shifts in implied probabilities since the election. No major scheduled events or announcements are set before year-end that would immediately resolve the field, leaving short-term trader sentiment tied to ongoing post-election positioning and any further public distancing or consolidation moves by leading contenders.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 30% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which JD Vance's hourly odds value is above 30% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for JD Vance (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing JD Vance from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for JD Vance between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on JD Vance's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.