- Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1 %
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1 %
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1 %
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1 %
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1 %
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?1¢1 %
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?97¢97 %
- 0,9 %<500BPromet 325 tis. $
- 0,8 %500–750BPromet 178,6 tis. $
- 0,6 %750B–1TPromet 188,7 tis. $
- 0,7 %1T–1.25TPromet 232,2 tis. $
- 0,2 %1.25T–1.5TPromet 544,7 tis. $
- 1 %1.5T+Promet 167,2 tis. $
- 97,3 %No IPO by December 31, 2026Promet 952,6 tis. $
OpenAI’s leadership has explicitly targeted a 2027 IPO, driving the 97.3% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2026. CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety priorities in September 2026 as rendering a 2026 debut ill-advised, while President Greg Brockman and CFO Sarah Friar reaffirmed in early November that the company expects to be IPO-ready next year following its confidential S-1 filing in June. Recent private fundraising—$11 billion closed at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, with the round scaled to $20 billion—bolsters the balance sheet ahead of a potential debut, supported by annualized revenue near $50 billion at end-September and projected above $70 billion by year-end, with enterprise sales now comprising the majority. The nonprofit-controlled public benefit corporation structure adds governance complexity. A material acceleration would require a sharp reversal in stated plans amid favorable equity-market conditions or competitive pressure from Anthropic’s expected listing, though the narrow remaining window makes such shifts improbable.
Pravila
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.