- Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?82¢82 %
- Will the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?9¢9 %
- Will the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?9¢9 %
- Will the Labour Party (LP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?9¢9 %
- Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?7¢7 %
- Will the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?1¢1 %
8 %81,5 %APCPromet 4 tis. $
5 %9 %PDPPromet 25 $
15 %8,8 %NDCPromet 87,4 $
8 %8,6 %LPPromet 106 $
6,5 %ADCPromet 4,3 tis. $
1,4 %NNPPPromet 163,8 $
APC maintains a commanding position in the Nigerian House of Representatives race ahead of the 2027 National Assembly elections, driven by its control of the federal executive, the majority of state governments, and ongoing legislative defections that have expanded its current caucus. These structural advantages, including access to patronage networks and campaign resources, underpin the elevated market pricing for an APC plurality of seats. Opposition parties face fragmentation, with PDP weakened by sustained defections, internal leadership disputes, and reduced National Assembly presence, while ADC and NDC contend with legal challenges over nominations and coalition coordination. Recent candidate list filings confirm APC's broad fielding across constituencies, reinforcing its organizational edge. Traders price in these incumbency dynamics, though outcomes remain subject to voter mobilization and any late shifts in alliances before the February vote.
Pravila
National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in the market options appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates elected under the specified party in the House of Representatives. Seats will not be combined between parties on the basis of endorsements, alliances, coalitions, or other forms of political cooperation. Any changes in party affiliation or seat holdings after the election, including defections, floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, the results of this election are those declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the conclusion of the election, including the results of any supplementary or rerun polls conducted to complete the declaration of results for constituencies initially declared inconclusive. Judicial outcomes after the declaration of results, including any election petition tribunal or appellate ruling that nullifies a result, substitutes a declared winner, or orders a fresh election, will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).