Connor McDavid's sustained elite production as the NHL's premier playmaker and scorer anchors his 69.2% implied probability in the Hart Memorial Trophy market, reflecting trader consensus on his consistent regular-season impact for the Oilers. Early 2026-27 season results show limited movement among other contenders, with Kirill Kaprizov at 7.7% and Nathan MacKinnon at 5.3% benefiting from strong starts and prior form, while Auston Matthews and Macklin Celebrini sit near 4% amid competitive divisional play. The broad field of longshots below 3% underscores high uncertainty this early, as Hart voting hinges on end-of-season value metrics like points, team success, and advanced contributions rather than November snapshots. Historical patterns favor repeat candidates when no major injuries or roster shifts alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Hart Memorial Trophy for the 2026-27 NHL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.