- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?2¢2 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?4¢4 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?7¢7 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?19¢19 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?32¢32 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?19¢19 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?6¢6 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?3¢3 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?1¢1 %
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?3¢3 %
- 1,6 %<-2.4%Promet 2,6 tis. $
- 3,6 %-2.4%– -1.6%Promet 5 tis. $
- 1 %6,9 %-1.6%– -0.8%Promet 3,5 tis. $
- 2 %19 %-0.8%–0.0%Promet 8,9 tis. $
- 8 %32 %0.0%–0.8%Promet 28,9 tis. $
- 4 %19,5 %0.8%–1.6%Promet 8 tis. $
- 3 %6,3 %1.6%–2.4%Promet 4,1 tis. $
- 3,3 %2.4%–3.2%Promet 4,3 tis. $
- 1 %1,3 %3.2%–4.0%Promet 2 tis. $
- 2,9 %4.0%+Promet 2,2 tis. $
Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from softening private consumption—the first contraction in seven quarters amid persistent price pressures and cautious household spending—plus a net export drag of roughly 0.4 percentage points from rising imports. These offset a rebound in capital expenditure, supported by AI-related and labor-saving investments. Reuters median forecasts point to 0.3% annualized QoQ expansion, down sharply from 1.4% in Q2, with JCER estimates clustered near 0.1%. The Bank of Japan's October outlook highlights decelerating but still positive growth amid elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions, while real wage gains and core CPI above 2% support expectations for further policy tightening. The preliminary release on November 16 introduces last-minute data risk, sustaining tight market-implied odds around the 0.0–0.8% band.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html