- Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?22¢22 %
- Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?6¢6 %
- 1 %21,5 %December 31, 2027Promet 172,1 tis. $
- 6 %December 31, 2026Promet 205,8 tis. $
Ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, including February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ influence over decision-making and security policy while protests over economic conditions continue in multiple provinces. Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as successor followed constitutional procedures, yet reports highlight expanded IRGC control amid wartime conditions and internal factional tensions. Traders price a coup attempt by December 31, 2026 at 6% and by December 31, 2027 at 24%, reflecting the low near-term probability of an overt military challenge alongside longer-term uncertainty from leadership consolidation, sanctions pressure, and potential U.S. policy shifts after the November 2026 midterms. Negotiations mediated by Qatar and upcoming diplomatic deadlines could alter internal power dynamics.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.