- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?75¢75 %
- Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?22¢22 %
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 4 %74,5 %<5Promet 108,2 tis. $
- 1 %21,5 %5-6Promet 121,9 tis. $
- 0,2 %7-8Promet 165,8 tis. $
- 0,7 %9-10Promet 67 tis. $
Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with an implied probability of 78.5% on that outcome. Only three flights have occurred so far this year, including Flight 14 in September, the first to achieve orbital insertion and deploy Starlink V3 satellites. Progress toward higher cadence remains constrained by pending FAA licenses for Flight 15's planned November tower catch of both the Super Heavy booster and upper stage, plus broader environmental reviews limiting annual launches from Starbase. Hardware readiness for Flights 15 and 16 is advancing with static fires complete, yet regulatory approvals and the shift toward complex recovery demonstrations continue to prioritize milestones over volume. A potential Florida debut in December could add one more attempt, but sustained rapid operations are unlikely before 2027.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.