- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.57% in November?8¢8 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in November?13¢13 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in November?8¢8 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in November?8¢8 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in November?11¢11 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in November?12¢12 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in November?17¢17 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.79% in November?19¢19 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.82% in November?21¢21 %
- 3 %8 %Below 4.57%Promet 384,5 $
- 3 %13 %Below 4.61%Promet 1,9 tis. $
- 8 %7,5 %Below 4.64%Promet 601,1 $
- 13 %8 %Below 4.67%Promet 818,6 $
- 16 %10,5 %Below 4.70%Promet 566 $
- 27 %11,5 %Below 4.73%Promet 863,2 $
- 27 %17 %Below 4.76%Promet 753,2 $
- 35 %18,5 %Below 4.79%Promet 986,1 $
- 47 %21 %Below 4.82%Promet 993,2 $
Recent safe-haven demand following the Democratic midterm gains, combined with declining oil prices, has driven the 10-year Treasury yield to two-month lows near 4.81% early in November before rebounding toward 4.87–4.88% as of November 10. Stronger-than-expected October jobs data and persistent inflation concerns have tempered the rally, with markets now pricing an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. The October CPI release, due imminently, along with the 10-year note auction and subsequent PPI and retail sales prints, will provide key signals on inflation breadth and the policy path. With the federal funds target range held at 3.75–4.00% in late October amid elevated price pressures, trader positioning reflects caution over whether yields can sustain further declines or retest recent lows before month-end.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).