- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% or less in October?<1¢<1 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in October?4¢4 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in October?12¢12 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in October?51¢51 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in October?25¢25 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% in October?6¢6 %
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.6% or more in October?7¢7 %
- 3 %1 %≤0.0%Promet 912,8 $
- 6 %4 %0.1%Promet 433,8 $
- 25 %11,5 %0.2%Promet 2,7 tis. $
- 11 %51 %0.3%Promet 2,9 tis. $
- 17 %25 %0.4%Promet 1,5 tis. $
- 4 %5,7 %0.5%Promet 483,5 $
- 7 %7,4 %0.6%+Promet 652,4 $
Recent October CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has elevated tracking estimates for the Fed's preferred Core PCE measure to the 0.32–0.35% range from pre-release forecasts near 0.23%. Persistent services inflation, including shelter and supercore components, alongside firm goods prices, supports this outcome and aligns with the prior three months of 0.3% or higher readings. The November 25 BEA release remains the resolution catalyst, while market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on sticky underlying price pressures amid elevated Treasury yields and revised Fed hike probabilities.
Pravila
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.