- Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?13¢13 %
The Council of Torah Sages directed Aryeh Deri to remain Shas chairman after the party's October 27, 2026 election setback reduced its Knesset representation from 11 to six seats. Deri had sought release from the role, but the rabbinic body overruled the request to ensure continuity on Haredi military exemption issues, and he publicly accepted the instruction. By early November, Deri withdrew from the incoming Knesset slate yet retained the party chairmanship to lead from outside parliament. With the spiritual leadership's binding decision in place and no subsequent challenges reported, trader consensus assigns high probability that Deri stays through year-end.
Pravila
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aryeh Deri ceases to be Leader of Shas for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aryeh Deri's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Aryeh Deri and Shas; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.