- Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?>99¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Apple's established annual hardware release cycle drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, as the company has maintained consistent September timing for flagship smartphones across multiple generations without major interruptions. Recent supply chain reports and component supplier updates show steady progress on next-generation chips and displays, with no official delays or cancellations announced. Traders weigh this history against potential risks such as regulatory interventions on software features or rare manufacturing setbacks, though these have not shifted consensus in prior cycles. The upcoming fall earnings call and any late-stage certification filings could serve as final catalysts before resolution.