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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in a fragmented field, with both parties near 20 percent support. The CDU's position weakened after lead candidate Kai Wegner resigned in July amid criticism over his handling of a January power grid attack, prompting replacement by Stefan Evers. This shift, combined with Linke's campaign momentum and coalition potential alongside the Greens and SPD, underpins the market's elevated probability for a Linke victory. Other parties trail significantly, reflecting limited paths to a plurality in the mixed-member proportional system.