- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?87¢
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?4¢
- Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?10¢
- Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Xiaomi have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic's strong lead at 87% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants topping the live Text Arena Math leaderboard through crowdsourced Elo ratings, reflecting superior performance in mathematical reasoning tasks evaluated via anonymous user votes. Recent releases and benchmark updates as of early September 2026 show these models outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5 series and Google's Gemini variants on math-specific arenas and related evaluations like AIME and FrontierMath, driven by advances in step-by-step reasoning capabilities within large language models. Trader consensus views Anthropic's consistent edge in this platform-specific metric as durable through month-end, though potential new model drops or shifts in arena participation could introduce volatility before resolution.