- Nouvelle pandémie en 2026 ?2¢2 %
Strong global surveillance and containment measures have kept localized outbreaks from escalating into a new pandemic throughout 2026. The ongoing Ebola Bundibugyo virus epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 10,000 confirmed cases and roughly 5,000 deaths with limited exports, remains regionally contained by public health responses, while H5N1 avian influenza shows continued animal circulation—including recent U.S. dairy farm clusters and one human fatality—but lacks sustained human-to-human transmission. Other events such as mpox and seasonal respiratory viruses have not triggered the broad geographic spread or novel pathogen characteristics required for pandemic classification by WHO criteria. With November marking the final weeks of the year and no evidence of a high-impact, globally transmissible agent emerging, trader consensus reflects this absence of qualifying developments, though a late-year mutation enabling efficient human spread in H5N1 or an undetected zoonotic event could still shift conditions before year-end.
Règles
Ce marché sera résolu sur « Oui » si l’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) déclare une maladie quelconque comme pandémie entre 1 janvier 2026 et 31 décembre 2026 23:59 ET. Dans le cas contraire, ce marché sera résolu sur « Non ». La source de résolution sera constituée des annonces officielles de l’Organisation mondiale de la santé.
Traduction automatique. En cas de litige, l'original fait foi.