- Babangon ba ang rehimeng Iranian bago ang 2027?8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid widespread 2025–2026 protests, economic collapse, and military confrontations underpins trader expectations that it will endure through 2026. Security forces maintained loyalty during nationwide demonstrations triggered by inflation and currency depreciation, employing prolonged internet shutdowns and lethal crackdowns that suppressed unrest without internal fractures or mass defections emerging. External pressures, including U.S. sanctions intensification and reported strikes tied to the 2026 Iran war, inflicted infrastructure damage and proxy setbacks but failed to trigger the coordinated popular uprising needed for regime change. As of August 2026, officials continue managing economic isolation through alternative trade channels while the Islamic Republic's institutional structures—built for asymmetric survival—show no verified signs of imminent collapse before the 2027 threshold.