- Pupunta ba si Jeff Bezos sa kalawakan bago mag-2028?23¢23%
Blue Origin’s suspension of New Shepard suborbital tourism flights since January 2026, with the pause extending at least two years to redirect resources toward lunar landers and New Glenn orbital missions, forms the main driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability that Jeff Bezos will not reach space again before 2028. Company statements emphasize routine cargo delivery and Artemis program support over crewed suborbital operations, while recent October 2026 updates detail New Glenn recovery timelines after the May test explosion and infrastructure expansions without referencing personal flights for the founder. Historical patterns show Bezos’s sole prior trip occurred in 2021, and no verified crew manifests or mission announcements place him aboard upcoming vehicles through the forecast window. Trader consensus reflects these operational priorities and the absence of near-term personal flight indicators.
Mga panuntunan
Maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Oo" kung pisikal na sakay si Jeff Bezos ng anumang sasakyang panghimpapawid o pangkalawakan na makarating o tumawid sa hangganan ng kalawakan ng U.S. mula nang likhain ang market hanggang Disyembre 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Itinatakda ang hangganan ng kalawakan ng U.S. sa 50 milya sa ibabaw ng mean sea level. Hindi makaaapekto sa resolusyon ng market na ito kung tatawid man o hindi si Jeff Bezos sa kinikilalang internasyonal na Kármán line. Ang pangunahing mapagkukunan sa pagresolba ng market na ito ay ang pagkakasundo ng mga mapagkakatiwalaang ulat.
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.