- Sasalakayin ba ng China ang Taiwan bago ang Hunyo 30, 2027?5¢5%
Taiwan's assessment of over 50 Chinese naval and coast guard vessels operating across regional waters in late October, including the Liaoning carrier group, underscores continued gray-zone pressure and hybrid tactics rather than imminent invasion preparations. US and Taiwanese intelligence assessments indicate the People's Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious, logistical, and air-sea superiority capabilities for a full-scale operation in the near term, with official reports emphasizing capacity-building toward later windows like 2030. Joint US-Japan exercises, anti-ship missile deployments, and alliance deterrence further elevate the costs of military action. Trader consensus at 95.5% against an invasion by June 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the preference for coercive diplomacy over conflict. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include sudden miscalculation during exercises, leadership-driven policy reversal in Beijing, or rapid capability breakthroughs.
Mga panuntunan
Magreresolba ang market na ito bilang "Oo" kung magsisimula ang China ng opensibang militar na naglalayong kontrolin ang anumang bahagi ng Republika ng Tsina (Taiwan) pagsapit ng Hunyo 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Ituturing na kwalipikado ang teritoryong nasa ilalim ng administrasyon ng Republika ng Tsina, kabilang ang anumang islang may naninirahan; gayunman, hindi ituturing na kwalipikado ang mga islang walang naninirahan. Ang magiging batayan sa pagresolba ng market na ito ay opisyal na kumpirmasyon mula sa Tsina, Taiwan, United Nations, o sinumang permanenteng miyembro ng UN Security Council; gayunman, gagamitin din ang pagkakasundo ng mga mapagkakatiwalaang ulat.
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.