- Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?100¢100%
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?0¢0%
Anthropic holds overwhelming market-implied odds on LiveBench Mathematics at end of September due to its Claude Opus and Fable series models posting top scores in the benchmark’s math category, including standout results near 97% on recent evaluations of numerical reasoning and problem-solving tasks. These outcomes reflect consistent advantages in handling complex, contamination-resistant questions that test genuine mathematical capability over pattern matching. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s latest releases and iterative improvements as establishing a durable edge in this specific domain relative to OpenAI, Google, and other labs. A late-month model update from a competitor or a benchmark refresh introducing harder problems could still narrow the gap before resolution.
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”