- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released prior to August 31, 2026?3¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?2¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 21 and September 27, 2026?6¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?5¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?<1¢
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?45¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?4¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?6¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?5¢
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?6¢
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Google’s repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after May I/O and still stuck in partner testing without a firm public release date as of late August—drive the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability of no Pro launch by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding benchmarks and agentic performance have prompted Google to prioritize frequent Flash iterations, such as the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash, while confirming pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders see low single-digit odds for any specific September or October window because the company has offered no timeline commitments and continues listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” on official pages. No major developer events or earnings catalysts are imminent that would likely shift these probabilities quickly.