- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?>99¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?>99¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?93¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?82¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?74¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?66¢
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent developments show the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in April 2026 and extended via a June memorandum of understanding for 60 days of nuclear and sanctions talks, collapsed in July after Iranian strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed US military responses and the revocation of sanctions waivers. As of mid-August 2026, formal negotiations remain deadlocked with no extension secured, amid US announcements of expanded secondary sanctions and economic measures targeting Iranian oil, shipping, and evasion networks. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missiles, freedom of navigation through the Strait, and preconditions tied to Israeli actions in Lebanon. Ongoing diplomatic efforts involve mediators such as Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan, while both sides have issued warnings of further escalation or renewed hostilities. Traders assess risks around any scheduled vote, summit, or deadline within the resolution window, alongside potential late developments in enforcement or backchannel progress.