- Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?93¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?6¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Republican incumbent Jake Ellzey secured the nomination after defeating challengers in the March 2026 primary, while Democrat Danny Minton advanced unopposed on the other side. All major forecasters rate the district solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting its partisan makeup within the current Texas congressional map and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Traders price the Republican outcome near 93 percent, consistent with the district's historical margins and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments that would signal a shift. A national Democratic surge, unexpected primary turnout effects carrying into November, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent remain the main variables that could narrow the gap, though structural factors continue to anchor expectations.