- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?100¢100%
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?0¢0%
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?0¢0%
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes?0¢0%
Sweden's Social Democrats maintained consistent support in the 27-30% range throughout the 2026 campaign, as shown by aggregated polls from multiple firms averaging near 28% in the final weeks. This stability stemmed from the party's established role as the largest single force, backed by core voters prioritizing welfare policies even as the broader center-left bloc faced a tightening race against the incumbent right-wing grouping on immigration, crime, and economic concerns. Final surveys and exit polls converged on figures within this band, matching the certified 28.0% result. A late swing in turnout among immigrant-background districts or an unforeseen scandal could have shifted shares, yet no such development occurred to push outcomes beyond the prevailing consensus.
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).