- Magiging ganap na magagamit muli ba ang Starship ng SpaceX bago mag-2027?33¢33%
Recent orbital achievement on Flight 14 in late September has advanced Starship testing, yet the 67% market-implied odds for "No" stem from the absence of upper-stage tower catches or reflights after orbital missions. Ship recovery from Flight 13 provided initial post-flight heat shield and engine data in October, but controlled reentry survival and rapid turnaround for both stages remain unproven. Booster catches occurred earlier, while orbital propellant transfer and repeated ship reuse—essential for full reusability—lack demonstrated timelines before year-end. Flight 15, potentially targeting a ship catch in November, represents the next near-term catalyst, though historical test pacing and unresolved thermal protection challenges sustain trader caution on completing all criteria by December 2026.
Mga panuntunan
Noong Pebrero 28, nag-post si Elon Musk na malamang na ganap nang magagamit muli ang Starship sa 2025. Makikita rito ang post sa X: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 Mare-resolve ang market na ito bilang "Oo" kung iaanunsyo ng SpaceX o ni Elon Musk na ganap nang magagamit muli ang Starship bago sumapit ang Disyembre 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Pakitandaan na ang tinutukoy ng market na ito ay ang upper stage ng Starship at hindi nito hinihinging magagamit muli ang Super-Heavy booster. Hindi kailangang aktuwal na mangyari ang muling paggamit para ma-resolve ang market na ito bilang "Oo"; kailangan lamang na iaanunsyo ng SpaceX o ni Elon Musk na ganap nang magagamit muli ang Starship bago ang petsa ng resolusyon ng market na ito. Ang mga anunsyo ni Elon Musk at ng SpaceX, o ng kanilang mga opisyal na kinatawan, ang pagmumulan ng resolusyon para sa market na ito.
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.