- Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?3¢
- Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?50¢
- Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?43¢
- Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?8¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling averages for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 4% and 7%, with most surveys clustering near or just above the 5% electoral threshold needed for seats. This volatility stems from the party's consistent positioning in opposition after the prior CDU-SPD-Grüne coalition, combined with AfD dominance above 40% that has prompted tactical voting campaigns urging support for smaller democratic parties to limit AfD seat gains. Greens' platform emphasizes climate protection and mobility, yet limited eastern German support and competition from Linke, SPD, and BSW keep results sensitive to turnout and late shifts. The narrow gap between 3-5% and 5-7% brackets reflects these polling margins and the high stakes of threshold dynamics rather than decisive momentum in either direction.