- Will Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?22¢
- Will Stephen Skoly be the RI-02 Republican nominee?79¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Stephen Skoly leads the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District with strong trader consensus, driven by his June endorsement from the state GOP at the party convention and a recent August poll showing him ahead of Victor Mellor among likely voters. Skoly, a longtime East Greenwich oral surgeon with deep local roots, benefits from established party infrastructure and name recognition tied to his past advocacy on medical freedom issues. Mellor, a self-funded challenger and Marine veteran who recently relocated back to the state, has poured substantial resources into the race but trails in polling and party support. With early voting underway and a televised debate set for September 4 just days before the September 9 primary, traders appear to weigh Skoly’s organizational advantages and local positioning as decisive factors in the two-candidate contest.