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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election is weeks away, and repeated polling from Verian, Novus, Demoskop and others shows the centre-left opposition bloc (Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre) holding a consistent 3–10 point lead over the incumbent Tidö coalition. Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson maintains the highest personal trust ratings among major party heads, while her party remains the largest single force at roughly 30–33 %. The government bloc has narrowed the gap modestly in some August surveys but still projects short of a Riksdag majority in most models, hampered by weak Liberal support near or below the 4 % threshold. Campaign attention has centred on welfare spending, cost-of-living pressures and crime, reinforcing Andersson’s frontrunner status in trader pricing. A late swing, turnout surge among government-leaning voters or post-election coalition arithmetic could still alter the outcome.