- Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?98¢
- Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
- Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?<1¢
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abiy Ahmed's commanding position in the market stems from his Prosperity Party's decisive victory in Ethiopia's June 2026 general election, securing 438 of 501 parliamentary seats and enabling the formation of the next government. Under Ethiopia's parliamentary system, the House of Peoples' Representatives selects the prime minister, giving the dominant party leader a clear path to reappointment. Abiy is scheduled to begin another term following the October swearing-in. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Gedion Timothewos or Berhanu Nega reflect limited opposition gains and the ruling party's entrenched parliamentary control. While late developments like major policy shifts, health issues, or successful constitutional reforms on term limits could alter outcomes, the current seat distribution strongly anchors trader expectations around continuity.