- Natural na sakuna sa 2026?5¢5%
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through mid-October. A strengthening El Niño, confirmed by NOAA and WMO monitoring, has increased wind shear and suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, consistent with historical patterns that lower major landfall odds during such phases. USGS records show peak magnitudes well below 8.5 this year, while Smithsonian data indicate all documented eruptions remain at VEI ≤4. NASA fireball monitoring has logged no qualifying bolides. With roughly 10 weeks remaining and typical seasonal frequencies for these extremes, new official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing geophysical surveillance represent the main near-term variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
Mga panuntunan
Mare-resolve ang market na ito bilang "Oo" kung matugunan ang alinman sa mga sumusunod na kondisyon sa loob ng 2026 ET: - Mag-landfall sa US ang isang Category 5 na bagyo - Tumama sa Daigdig ang isang malaking bulalakaw (10 kt o higit pa) - Pumutok ang isang malaking bulkan (VEI ≥6) - Maganap ang isang lindol na may magnitude na 8.5 o higit pa Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Kung hindi pa makuha ang kinakailangang impormasyon mula sa mga tinukoy na source, maaaring manatiling bukas ang market hanggang Pebrero 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Makikita rito ang buong mga panuntunan para sa market na ito: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.