- Hindi na ba magiging kalihim-panlahat ng Hezbollah si Naim Qassem pagsapit ng Disyembre 31, 2026?10¢10%
Naim Qassem remains Hezbollah’s secretary-general as of late October 2026, having assumed the role after Hassan Nasrallah’s 2024 killing and formal election the following month. The group faces sustained external pressure to disarm under the November 2024 ceasefire and June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement, which requires Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese army deployment south of the Litani River, and restrictions on Hezbollah’s military capabilities. On October 28, Qassem publicly rejected any disarmament discussion while Israeli forces remain and dismissed recent Israeli election results, reinforcing the organization’s stance. Lebanese authorities have also pursued legal measures tied to seized explosives linked to the group, raising questions about institutional leverage over Hezbollah’s leadership structure. Traders weigh these enforcement timelines, regional diplomacy, and internal Shura Council dynamics when assessing the probability of a leadership transition by the market’s resolution date.
Mga panuntunan
Magtatakda ang market na ito ng "Oo" kung hindi na maging secretary-general ng Hezbollah si Naim Qassem sa anumang tagal ng panahon sa pagitan ng pagkakagawa ng market at ng tinukoy na petsa, 11:59 PM ET. Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Ituturing na naalis sa kapangyarihan si Naim Qassem kung magbitiw siya, ikulong, o sa anumang paraan ay mawala sa kanya ang kanyang posisyon o mapigilan siyang gampanan ang kanyang mga tungkulin bilang secretary-general ng Hezbollah sa loob ng panahong saklaw ng market na ito. Ang pangunahing pagmumulan ng pasya para sa market na ito ay ang mga opisyal na pahayag ng Hezbollah; gayunman, gagamitin din ang pinagkaisahang ulat mula sa mga mapagkakatiwalaang sanggunian.
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.