- Makukulong ba si Jerome Powell bago mag-2027?1¢1%
The overwhelming 97.8% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any criminal indictments, regulatory enforcement actions, or credible investigations targeting the Federal Reserve Chair. As a Senate-confirmed public official overseeing monetary policy, Powell faces no documented legal exposure that would meet the high evidentiary bar for incarceration, consistent with historical precedent for Fed leadership. Traders price this outcome as near-certain given the institutional safeguards and lack of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as politically motivated charges in a highly polarized environment or unforeseen personal misconduct emerging in the final months of his term, though neither has materialized in official filings or credible reporting.
Mga panuntunan
Maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Oo" kung magsilbi ng anumang panahon si Jerome Powell sa pederal, pang-estado, o lokal na kulungan o piitan sa U.S. sa pagitan ng paglikha ng market at Disyembre 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Hindi". Ang pangunahing mapagkukunan para sa resolusyon ng market na ito ay ang opisyal na impormasyon mula sa Pamahalaan ng U.S.; gayunman, maaari ring gamitin ang pinagkaisahang ulat ng mga mapagkakatiwalaang tagapagbalita.
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.